FRI 18OCT24 - "November and December will be the most critical months of 2024 due to energy shortages and power outages in Ecuador.

The low water level in the Mazar reservoir puts the operation of Paute-Molino at risk, and in the Amazon, low water flows are expected for Coca Codo Sinclair.

The energy generation crisis in Ecuador worsened in the first week of October 2024. And this is just the beginning, as the harshest drought period is expected to last until at least February 2025.

Ecuador is highly dependent on hydroelectric energy, but due to the drought, the hydroelectric plants, with an installed capacity of about 5,500 megawatts, are operating at only 50%, according to data from the National Electricity Operator Cenace.

"We experienced a 118-day drought last year, but it was from September to December 2023. Now in 2024, we're again facing a drought, but this time since August. So far, we’ve already had 89 days of drought," explains Lenin Álvarez, head of the Hydrometeorological Network of the public water company Etapa.

He referred to the lack of rain in the south of the country, where Ecuador's largest hydroelectric complex, Paute (comprising Mazar, Paute-Molino, and Sopladora), is located between Azuay and Cañar.

Given the severe drought, there is a high probability that the power outages of up to 10 hours, announced by the government of Daniel Noboa on October 9, 2024, could be even longer and continue until the end of the year due to the severe electricity generation deficit, adds electrical sector expert Gabriel Secaira.

This is because the Mazar hydroelectric plant is operating with only one of its two turbines, and if the water in its reservoir drops below 2,110 meters above sea level (masl), it will have to shut down. As of October 9, the water level was at 2,112 masl.

The water level in the Amaluza reservoir, which supplies the Paute-Molino plant, is also dropping. If the water continues to fall to critical levels, there is a risk that this plant will go offline, leading to even longer power outages, says Secaira.

What is happening in the Paute complex?

Paute-Molino, with its Amaluza reservoir, is part of a complex of three cascading hydroelectric plants. It is the largest plant in the complex, with a capacity of 1,100 megawatts.

How does this cascading complex work?

First, upstream, is the Mazar hydroelectric plant, which has a large reservoir with a maximum capacity of 2,153 masl. Further downstream is Paute-Molino (with the smaller Amaluza reservoir at 1,975 masl), followed by Sopladora, which has no reservoir.

Together, the three hydroelectric plants have an installed capacity of 1,756 megawatts, which is 38% of the country's demand.

Normally, when the water level in the Amaluza reservoir drops because the hydroelectric plant is operating at full capacity, the Mazar reservoir releases water to maintain sufficient levels in Amaluza and ensure the continued operation of Paute-Molino.

But now, Mazar has reached critically low water levels, just as the most severe drought season is starting.

It is likely that the water flowing into Amaluza will reach minimum levels during this period, jeopardizing the operation of Paute-Molino, which is currently generating 63% of its installed capacity.

"There has been poor management of the reservoirs. It seems that all the incoming water is being used for generation, preventing the reservoir from filling. The power rationing should help fill the Mazar reservoir, but that’s not happening," says Secaira.

Thus, the current power outages are not helping to fill the Mazar reservoir but rather indicate that Ecuador doesn't have enough energy for 10 hours a day.

Coca Codo is also at risk

Other energy specialists, such as Ricardo Buitrón, believe that the risk of Paute-Molino shutting down is lower because its Pelton turbines are designed to operate with very low water flows.

According to Buitrón, the Paute-Molino turbines can continue generating power with flows as low as 4 cubic meters per second (m³/s). In September, the average flow was 84 m³/s, but in early October, it dropped to 64 m³/s.

"Only if there is an extreme drought where virtually no water passes through Mazar or Amaluza would Paute-Molino be forced to shut down," he adds.

Buitrón explains that once the water level in the Mazar reservoir drops below 2,110 masl, the only option left would be to shut down the remaining turbine and open the floodgates, allowing water from the local rivers to flow directly into Amaluza.

This would be enough for Paute-Molino to operate, albeit at reduced capacity.

However, Buitrón adds that the situation will worsen in the last two months of the year due to other factors.

One of these is that by the end of the year, it is highly likely that the water flow supplying Ecuador’s largest hydroelectric plant, Coca Codo Sinclair (in Napo province), will decrease. This plant is not in the same basin as the Paute complex.

Historical hydrological data shows that November and December are when Coca Codo's water flow reaches its lowest levels of the year.

Coca Codo Sinclair is currently generating 450 megawatts, just 30% of its capacity, and the driest season has yet to arrive, explains Buitrón.

The problem is compounded by increased energy demand in December, driven by Christmas and New Year’s celebrations. Additionally, the government has promised to reduce electricity bills, "which doesn’t encourage energy savings," says Buitrón.

What about emergency contracts?

Secaira also points to the slow progress in contracting new thermoelectric energy.

Of the 340 megawatts the government has contracted, only 110 megawatts are operational, coming from the Turkish Karpowership barge.

Former Energy Minister Antonio Goncalves had promised that a new 250-megawatt barge would begin operating in early November, but he recently acknowledged that the contracting process has been delayed.

A third factor making Ecuador’s situation more critical is that Colombia stopped selling electricity to Ecuador on October 1, 2024, which means the country lost around 400 megawatts of power, the amount the neighboring country used to supply.

This restriction could last until 2025, as Colombia is also suffering from a severe drought." -

https://www.primicias.ec/economia/noviembre-diciembre-meses-criticos-cortes-luz-ecuador-80826/