28OCT24 - #Ecuador has Lost Capacity for Programming and Planning its Power Outages – What Does This Mean?-

"The Ecuadorian electrical system is unstable, and even with 14-hour blackouts, peak daytime electricity demand cannot be adequately met.

Temporarily increasing production at the Coca Codo Sinclair hydroelectric plant masks some issues, but if it generates little power, Paute and Sopladora must be used, while every effort is made to keep Mazar off as long as possible. The result is unplanned outages, missed schedules, and uncertainty for citizens.

If you’ve experienced power cuts at times not previously scheduled, delays in service restoration, or electricity returning later than the set time, one of the main reasons is that, according to Alejandro Jaya Montalvo, a Renewable Energy Applications Engineer, Ecuador has lost its capacity for planning and programming power outages.

In other words, the system is so unstable and on the verge of collapse that, several times a day, fluctuations in power production and supply cause unplanned outages and prevent adherence to scheduled times.

The situation is so uncertain that, for example, if Coca Codo Sinclair increases its production due to more rain and water flow in the area, scheduled outages are reduced, as this hydroelectric plant cannot store water. These reductions happen unexpectedly, and it’s impossible to determine how long they will last.

Similarly, if Coca Codo Sinclair reduces its production, Paute and Sopladora must increase their output, and, as a last resort, Mazar, which is currently only two meters above its minimum level to maintain operational control, must be used.

In an attempt to regain some of the reservoir levels lost by reducing blackout schedules, as of 7:00 AM on October 25, 2024, the Mazar hydroelectric plant has been turned off. Even if Coca Codo Sinclair temporarily increases production, Paute and Sopladora are required to cover temporary outages of thermal plants (for maintenance),

meet increases in industrial demand, or compensate for temporary reductions in generation from medium-sized hydroelectric plants like Agoyán and San Francisco, which have also been affected by drought, noted Jaya Montalvo.

In short, with an unstable system on the brink of collapse, if Coca Codo Sinclair’s production fails and Mazar must be forced off, controlling electricity demand peaks becomes challenging, and reliance falls on the Amaluza reservoir, which supplies the entire Paute-Molino complex.

As of 10:00 AM on October 28, 2024, that reservoir stands at 1,979.72 meters above sea level, just 4.62 meters above its minimum operational level.

"This is why we’re going to have random outages, why schedules are not being met for many people, and why others experience extended outages. This is because we’ve lost control until Mazar’s water level reaches 2,115 meters above sea level again. With the current flow rate (26.49 cubic meters per second), this might happen in 15 days," Jaya Montalvo added.

Currently, after being off for nearly three days, Mazar stands at 2,112.11 meters above sea level, still 41 meters below its optimal operational level."
(JS)

https://www.lahora.com.ec/pais/perdio-capacidad-programacion-planificacion-apagones-que-quiere-decir-esto/